MODEL FOR ASSESSMENT THE MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION SPEED OF FUEL CONSUMPTION BY MILITARY SUBUNITS OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/2519-481X/2023/80-03Keywords:
random fuel consumption, arithmetic mean of a random variable, number of attempts, sample sizeAbstract
The study of the experience of conducting an anti-terrorist operation (ATO) and an operation of the United Forces (OUF) in the war against the Russian Federation allows us to conclude that today the use of modern means of fire damage in combination with new approaches to intelligence conducting has had a significant effect on increasing the intensity and speed of troops movement during hostilities.
In such conditions, random (unforeseen) consumption of fuel may appear with a simultaneous sudden decrease in its reserves below the specified (acceptable) norms. An unexpected drop in fuel reserves in military equipment can be related to many factors and, as a result, create conditions that will not allow to perform tasks in the offensive, during the development of success and when solving other combat tasks in the next day of hostilities.
In order to ensure the fulfillment of combat missions by units and subunits of the Armed Forces and to prevent the limitation of their combat capability in connection with an unforeseen shortage of fuel during the operation, there is a need to develop a mathematical model, the use of which in the future will allow to calculate the time after which the level of fuel reserves will decrease below the permissible norm, and in the dynamics of the work of the logistics headquarters, it contributes to the timely provision of the troops needs.
In the article, for the first time, simple expressions were obtained for calculating the required sample volume of a random fuel consumption value in the UAF subunits and for the error of estimating the mathematical expectation of this value in the sample, which guarantees the fulfillment of the requirements for the accuracy of calculations with a sample size significantly smaller than the traditional one and without using the concepts of "confidence interval" and "confidence probability", and corresponds to the limited capabilities of the Ukraine Armed Forces subunits to collect statistics during hostilities.
The developed model can be used for further development of mathematical tools for predicting possible fuel consumption, for predicting needs and for providing the troops with fuel up to the established standards in a timely manner.
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